Sales Nowcast

Daily lot counts for a retail chain, indexed for your model.

A CSV series of vehicle counts from satellite imagery of the chain's parking lots, seasonally adjusted, updated daily.

The files

FileFormatWhat's in itCadence
Chain indexCSVOne row per day for the chain: the vehicle count summed across the lots in scope, the indexed value and the seasonally adjusted value. Updated daily. It loads straight into the model you already keep for the name.Daily
Store-level seriesCSV, optionalThe same series broken out by lot, keyed by a store identifier from the list you supplied. Use it to check which locations move the chain figure, or to drop a store that is closed or under construction.Daily
Coverage flagsCSV columnA flag on each daily value where cloud cover or a capture gap meant a lot was missing or counted with lower confidence, so your model can drop or down-weight the day instead of treating it as a real zero.Per daily value
Store listCSVThe chain estate as scoped: each store, its lot, and whether it is in the chain figure. It is the file you check the index against.As scoped

How it works

  1. 01Input

    Send the chain and the store list

    Tell us the chain and, if you have it, a store list with addresses. We confirm which lots have visible surface parking.

  2. 02Imagery

    Imagery over each lot

    Very high resolution satellite or aerial imagery is captured over each lot in scope, on the days it is available.

  3. 03Counting

    Count and index

    Vehicles are counted in each lot. The counts are summed to the chain, indexed against a base period and seasonally adjusted.

  4. 04Output

    Feed lands as a CSV

    You get the series as a running CSV, chain-level with a store breakout if you asked for one, ready to join to your own model.

Limits

These are where a lot count stops being a sales read. They belong in your model as much as on this page.

ConditionEffect on the series
Cars, not salesThe series counts vehicles in a lot. It says nothing about basket size, price, mix or what shoppers bought, and it is one input to a nowcast, not a forecast of the print.
In-store visits onlyOnline orders, delivery and pickup that never touches the lot do not show. The signal is weaker for online-heavy and delivery-heavy retailers and fits chains where physical visits still track sales.
Cloud and capture gapsA cloudy day, or a pass that missed a lot, can leave a missing or lower-confidence count for that date. Those days are flagged in the file, not filled in.
Daily is a targetDaily is what the series aims for. Imagery is captured when it is available, so some lots will have days without a usable capture.
What ≤0.5 m resolvesAt ≤0.5 m a car is only a few pixels across. That is enough to count vehicles in a lot, but not to tell models apart, and cars parked close together or under trees, canopies or a shadow can be undercounted.
Surface lots onlyMulti-level garages and covered parking are out of view. A chain with mostly structured parking is a poor fit.
Other reasons a lot is fullA lot can fill for an event, a closure next door or roadworks. Store-level series help you spot it, but the series cannot tell you why a lot was full.

Why this exists

Before the print you have management's last call, card-panel data, an app-based footfall panel and a few channel checks. The panel sees only the phones that carry the app, and a store visit is one lot on one afternoon.

In the final weeks of the quarter, when the model needs a read on whether stores are busier than last year, there is nothing that covers the chain estate. This puts a count on every lot you name, every day the imagery allows.

An empty surface parking lot with a row of trees at its far edge
Scenery: an empty surface lot.

Who it's for

  • Equity research analysts covering a retail chain, buy-side or sell-side, who build a same-store sales estimate before the print.
  • Alt-data and data sourcing teams at funds who test a new series against the reported quarters before they license it.
  • Quant analysts who want a lot-level series to join to their own model.

Who it's not for

  • Anyone looking for a number that calls the quarter for them. This is a traffic series, and the read on the quarter is yours.
  • Coverage of online-first or delivery-led retailers, where cars in a lot are a small part of sales.
  • Chains whose stores sit mostly in garages, malls with shared structured parking or dense city streets.
  • Intraday or live traffic feeds. Cadence is daily at best.

Questions from the data desk

Is it a forecast of the print?

No. It is an indexed traffic series, one input to your nowcast alongside card-panel and app data. We make no claim that it tracks same-store sales for any given quarter, and we give no backtest figure.

Which retailers does it work for?

Any chain with visible surface parking, listed or not. It fits chains where in-store visits still drive sales and fits poorly where online or delivery is a large part of the business.

How far back does the history go?

That depends on the chain and the lots. Ask about your names and we tell you what is available before you agree anything.

How do cloud cover and gaps show up in the file?

As missing or lower-confidence values, flagged on the date. We do not interpolate across a gap.

How do we validate it against our own numbers?

Line the series up against the quarters the chain has already reported and against your other panels. Tell us which periods you want it tested on when the chain is scoped.

Can we get the series per store?

Yes, as an optional breakout keyed to the store list you supply.

How does it plug into our model?

It is a CSV, so it loads into Excel, Python or R, or the data platform you already run. Tell us the schema you expect and we tell you what fits.

What are the data rights?

Use and redistribution terms for the series are set in the contract before delivery. Talk to us about whether it can be used internally only or shared in published research.

How is it priced?

Each chain is scoped and quoted on its own, from the number of stores and the history you want. You get a written scope for your procurement or compliance review.

Name the chain and we'll tell you what the series covers.

Or ask about a specific name .

Get started